Fourth Quarter 2025 Auction Report

While the 20% revenue growth is a positive headline, it is largely a rebound from a weak 2024 rather than the sign of a booming market. This is supported by limited price growth remaining below underlying inflation and the significant downward pressure visible in some ultra-fine wine categories.

Regional Performance Breakdown

The Barossa-Penfolds axis remains the market's foundation, representing 30% of national sales by value, with a credible performance in Q4 2025 thanks to steady volumes and prices despite a significant rise in overall clearance rates. However, the real growth continues to be largely found in scarcity-driven unicorns from across the country.

The Value vs Cooling Regions

• The High-Performers: Beechworth and Eden Valley saw average bottle prices jump by over $40, primarily fueled by Giaconda and Henschke.

• The Rarity Factor: Hill of Grace saw a 200% jump in clearance rates and an $80+ price increase, although this was aided by a 40% drop in supply.

• The Lynch Pins: Barossa Valley reamains a primary segment and South Australia as the Top Revenue Region.

• Cool Climate Corrections: Despite high regard, average bottle prices were down in regions such as Yarra Valley (-$12), Mornington Peninsula (-$10), and Adelaide Hills (-$8) which no doubt played a role in better clearance rates.

Penfolds: A Supply-Driven Stability

The iconic brand’s healthy 5.2% average price increase appears to be driven by a 20% reduction in available inventory across all labels, particularly Grange.

• Bin 95 Grange: Supply dropped by nearly 50%, suggesting collectors are holding rather than selling. This scarcity delivered a modest 7% rise in average prices.

• Softening Bins: While clearance rates are up, hammer prices for Bins 128, 150, 28, 389, and 407 have slightly softened.

• Investment Grade Growth: The key labels seeing stratospheric growth are super-premium limited releases such as Block 42, Bin 60A and the Californian Quantum Bin 98, which all rose over $100 per bottle in 12 months. An impressive 18% rise in average price for St Henri illustrates its continuing strength as a relatively accessible luxury highly valued by collectors.

Global Trends: The Flight to Value

A major shift is occurring in the import sector where traditional pedigree no longer guarantees a premium.

International Price Shifts

Strategic Summary & Outlook

The market is entering a savvy buyer phase. With more wine cellars expected to hit the market in the next six months thanks to the cooling of demand for ultra-fine wine combined with stagnant consumer confidence, volatility is expected to increase which will see the emergence of a buyer's market.

• For Sellers: Collectors should act to clear excess inventory as pricing pressures are expected to increase over the short to medium term in step with interest rates and cost of living pressures.

• For Collectors: The next 12 to 24 months should yield significant bargains and opportunities to build cellars of well-aged local and international wines as prices in many categories will continue to correct.

• Generational Cellar Transitions: As many significant cellars come to market, there will be an influx of vintage wines that are ready to drink now, offering exceptional value to buyers who want to enjoy aged wines over the short and medium terms.

• Market Bottoming Out: There is some growing international evidence that prices in some categories recently hit five-year lows making 2026 a strategic entry point for long-term collectors.

• A Return to Normality: The speculative traders have largely left the market with bidding now driven by drinkers and long-term collectors rather than short-term investors.

Evolving Collector Preferences - 2026

Market performance in 2026 is expected to be driven by premiumisation and a shift in how luxury is defined.

• The Experience Economy: Collectors are changing their behaviour and increasingly sharing ultra-premium wines earlier rather than cellaring for long-term investment.

• Lighter & Sustainable Styles: Unlike the international auction market, local collectors have always shown interest in a varied wine selection. Currently, there is a growing trend toward lighter weight red wines and alternative Mediterranean varieties such as Pinot Noir, Gamay, Nebbiolo, Sangiovese and Nerello Mascalese.

• Collectors are increasingly valuing the experience of wine through well-cellared mature stock which will probably attract a greater premium over the medium and long term. 

Regional Safe Havens vs. Emerging Value

• The Blue-Chip Pivot: As the market hits a baseline and confidence begins to return, we expect blue-chip wines such as DRC, Bordeaux icons and Penfolds Bin 95 Grange to maintain their relevance and strong clearance rates as they act as a safe bet.

• Broadening Horizons: Collectors are expected to further diversify into Tuscany, Piedmont, and Champagne throughout 2026. These regions are seen as offering better relative value compared to the over-heated prices of many top-tier Burgundy, Rhone and Bordeaux.

• The Unicorn Strategy: Small-production, cult-status wines (such as Henschke’s Hill of Grace, Penfolds Block 42 Cabernet Sauvignon and Giaconda Chardonnay) will continue to see price growth due to limited production and in turn supply of aged stock.

Structural Changes in Bidding

• Bid-to-Offer Ratios: We are seeing a change in buyer numbers compared to sellers across the market as a new digitally-savvy generation moves into wine auctions to acquire aged wine stocks. This should start to see an improvement in floor price by mid-2026. 

• Digital Transparency: The proliferation of online auctions around the world in combination with ready availability of real-time estimates has made buyers on the whole more savvy which is reducing the spread both in estimates and achieved prices.

Notes: Data has been collected and combined from a number of sources. While all efforts have been made to provide a perfect picture of market performance, this advice should not be relied on as a complete measure of the Australian wine auction market or to predict future trends.